WEEK AHEAD // OCT 26–30 2026
THEVALUETRADER RESEARCH · REF WK 10.26–30 · PUB OCT 24
All times are U.S. Eastern Time (ET).

AM = report before the open, PM = after the close. The earnings grid is a selection of 33 companies.

01 · The week's thesis

Measured against their own words

Out of this week's releases we picked three. They are the Fed statement, Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud and Amazon's operating income. Each is measured against words the Fed or the company chose earlier, and each has an easy comparison that can mislead. The pick is our editorial weighting, not a ranking of likely market moves. A result above a company's own range is not a beat against analyst estimates.

Wed 14:00 ET · Statement
FOMC

Does the Fed change the sentences that framed its September decision?

Target range going in ACTUAL
3.75%–4.00%
Raised 25 bp on September 16, vote 12–0.

Why it mattersWith no Summary of Economic Projections this time, the statement and the press conference are the only new read, to set against September's wording.

What it does not showA changed sentence is the Committee's view that day, not its December 8–9 decision, and it comes before Thursday's GDP and PCE data.

Wed 17:30 ET · Webcast
Microsoft · Intelligent Cloud

Does Intelligent Cloud land in the July 29 call range, and what does Microsoft say about Azure?

Call range, September quarter MGMT EXPECTATION
$40.95B–$41.25B
June quarter $39.3B ACTUAL, a sequential base.

Why it mattersIt contains Azure, and Microsoft framed the range as growth of 33% to 34% year over year MGMT EXPECTATION.

What it does not showHow Azure did, because the segment holds more than Azure.

Thu 17:00 ET · Call
Amazon · Operating income

Where does Q3 operating income land in Amazon's own range?

Company outlook, Q3 2026 GUIDANCE
$22.5B–$26.5B
Q2 2026 $27.5B ACTUAL.

Why it mattersIt is the one profit range Amazon gives, and it covers AWS and retail together. The range sits below Q2 and above the year-ago quarter with or without its special charges CALCULATED.

What it does not showQ2's $3.5B gap above its top CALCULATED sets no norm for Q3.

Swipe for all three questions →

Quick briefing · 2:12The same three questions, read aloud with the charts and the earnings calendar. Subtitles are part of the picture. It shows the source check of October 24 and adds no new one.

The week at a glance

Our pick of one fixed point per day, with who else reports.

02

Earnings releases · Week of October 26

Click a company for its fact sheet. Esc closes, arrow keys switch company.Tap a company for its fact sheet.

DayAMPM
MONVZCDNS NUE
TUEUPS SOFI PYPL KO BANXPI V HOOD
WEDnoneTMUS F CMG GOOGL FTNT KLAC NOW MSFT
THUCAT MRK MA LLYMDLZ SBUX GILD AMZN INTC COIN RIVN
FRIXOM ABBV CVXnone

R = release, C = call or webcast, ET. = release time not stated by the company; the fact sheet says how AM or PM was set. Sorted by first stated time.

03

In this issue

  1. 02Earnings releases33 fact sheets2 min
  2. 04EditorialThree kinds of comparison1 min
  3. 05Wednesday, hour by hourThe Fed and eight reports1 min
  4. 06If this, watch thatTwo observations1 min
  5. 07Briefings: Microsoft and AmazonWhat is comparable3 min
  6. 08Ten names, scoredLast quarter against own outlook3 min
  7. 09Macro deskFed wording, previous readings2 min
  8. 10ThreadsQuestions across reports3 min
  9. 11Last week, scoredWhat carries over2 min
  10. 12GlossaryTerms and labels1 min
  11. 13Method and sourcesWhat was checked3 min

Reading times CALCULATED, 230 words a minute, rounded up, without fact sheets.

04

Editorial

This week's figures each compare with one of three earlier references, and the Fed's statement with its September wording. A company outlook is a range printed in a release or filing GUIDANCE. A management expectation is given only on the call MGMT EXPECTATION, as with Microsoft's ranges. A previous reading is the last value of a data series, not a forecast.

Two shortcuts need care. A fall from the June quarter is not a verdict on the business by itself. Read it beside the year-over-year rates and any reasons management gave, as the briefings show. And EPS last quarter carried large investment gains at Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, as the thread on named items sets out.

05

Wednesday, hour by hour

Data in the morning, the Fed in the afternoon, eight company reports after the close.

  1. 08:30 ETCensus
    Advance Economic Indicators Report
    The only data before the statement (previous reading).
  2. 14:00 ETFederal Reserve
    FOMC statement
    Day two of the meeting, no projections (September's wording).
  3. 14:30 ETFederal Reserve
    Press conference
  4. 16:05–16:10 ETReleases
    T-Mobile, Ford, Chipotle
  5. 16:30 ETCall
    Alphabet and Fortinet
    Alphabet's release gives no numeric outlook to compare with. Fortinet's Q3 outlook was revenue of $2.010B–$2.100B GUIDANCE.
  6. 17:00 ETWebcast, call
    KLA and ServiceNow
    KLA's September-quarter outlook was revenue of $4.0B ± $0.2B GUIDANCE (chip outlooks thread). ServiceNow's was subscription revenues of $3,975M–$3,980M GUIDANCE (ten names).
  7. 17:30 ETWebcast
06

If this, watch that

Two results this week that are easy to misread on their own.

WED
Watch forWhat does the statement now say on inflation and on uncertainty, both “elevated” in September?
Then readThursday's September PCE prices against a year earlier and against August, however the inflation sentence reads. The yearly rate also reflects September 2025, the monthly rate only the latest month. For uncertainty, compare any reason given with September's.
THU
Watch forDoes Amazon's release name an item its Q3 guidance assumed would not occur?
Then readThe guidance assumed no impact from revaluing energy derivative contracts and no new acquisitions, restructurings or legal settlements GUIDANCE. If one is named, read the amount Amazon gives for it and the segment table, where AWS earned $16.6B of Q2 operating income ACTUAL.
07

Briefings: Microsoft and Amazon

What each range compares with, and what it cannot show.

MSFTMicrosoft · Q1 FY2027 (September quarter)
Wed after the close · Webcast 17:30 ET
Metric
What management said on the call, Q1 FY27 MGMT EXPECTATION
Last, Q4 FY26, growth y/y ACTUAL
Revenue
$89.85B–$90.95B, +16% to +17% y/y
$90.0B, +18%
Intelligent Cloud
$40.95B–$41.25B, +33% to +34% y/y
$39.3B, +32%
Productivity and Business Processes
$36.7B–$37.0B, +11% to +12% y/y
$37.8B, +14%
More Personal Computing
$12.2B–$12.7B
$12.9B, −4%
Operating income
margin “relatively flat” y/y
$40.6B, +18%
FY27 revenue and operating income
double-digit growth
n/a
Read before the call
  • For the September quarter, Microsoft expected Azure growth of about 45% year over year in constant currency and lower on-premises server revenue MGMT EXPECTATION. June's Azure growth was 43%, reported and in constant currency alike ACTUAL. Microsoft added that the rate “can vary quarter-to-quarter based on capacity timing and contract mix”.
  • Microsoft tied the More Personal Computing range to strong prior-year comparables and to “complex PC market dynamics impacted by component prices and inventory levels” MGMT EXPECTATION.
  • Capital spending over $50B for the quarter and about $175B for calendar 2026 MGMT EXPECTATION, on a new basis that counts fewer datacenter leases as capex. June-quarter capex was $41B ACTUAL, measured before the change.
  • June-quarter GAAP EPS of $4.81 was above non-GAAP EPS of $4.74 ACTUAL. Non-GAAP removes only the impact of the OpenAI investments, which added $480M to net income, so a $3.2B gain from the Anthropic investment is in both ACTUAL.
What the number cannot tell youHow much of Intelligent Cloud is Azure. The segment also holds on-premises server products and enterprise and partner services.

Microsoft: call ranges for Q1 FY27 segments against the June quarter

$ billions, each row spans $3B. A sequential view.
Microsoft segment revenue: management expectation for Q1 FY2027 against the Q4 FY2026 actual Three rows, each spanning 3 billion dollars. Productivity and Business Processes: MGMT EXPECTATION 36.7 to 37.0 billion dollars, ACTUAL June quarter 37.847 billion. Intelligent Cloud: MGMT EXPECTATION 40.95 to 41.25 billion, ACTUAL 39.306 billion. More Personal Computing: MGMT EXPECTATION 12.2 to 12.7 billion, ACTUAL 12.854 billion. Only the Intelligent Cloud range lies above its June-quarter actual. Productivity and Business Processes $36B $37B $38B $36.7B–$37.0B $37.8B Intelligent Cloud $39B $40B $41B $40.95B–$41.25B $39.3B More Personal Computing $11B $12B $13B $14B $12.2B–$12.7B $12.9B
MGMT EXPECTATION range (call)Q4 FY26 ACTUAL
AMZNAmazon · Q3 2026
Thu · Call 17:00 ET · Release time not stated
Metric
Company outlook, Q3 2026 GUIDANCE
Last, Q2 2026, growth y/y ACTUAL
Net sales
$197.0B–$202.0B
$200.6B, +20%
Operating income
$22.5B–$26.5B
$27.5B, +43%
AWS net sales
no segment range in the release
$42.2B, +37%
Read before the call
  • The Q3 net sales range means growth of 9% to 12% year over year, which Amazon says would be “nearly 400 basis points higher” excluding Prime Day “in both 2025 and 2026” GUIDANCE. In April it said Prime Day would fall in June in most countries GUIDANCE. In our reading, Q2 and Q3 therefore differ by calendar as well as by business.
  • The Q3 operating income range compares with $17.4B a year earlier, which included $4.3B of special charges, or $21.7B without them ACTUAL. Its top sits $1.0B below Q2, a sequential view CALCULATED. In our reading, neither base is clean, so Amazon's own range comes first.
  • Q2 net income includes $53.4B of non-operating pre-tax other income, primarily from investments in Anthropic, and Q3 2025 included $9.5B of such gains ACTUAL. GAAP EPS of $5.75 ACTUAL says little about operations, and a year-over-year net income comparison carries such gains on both sides.
  • Amazon gives no full-year guidance.
What the number cannot tell youThe split between AWS and retail, because the guidance names no segment figures.

Amazon: operating income, Q2 guidance and actual, Q3 guidance

$ billions, axis from $0B. Grey = past, blue = under test.
Amazon operating income: Q2 2026 guidance range, Q2 2026 actual and Q3 2026 guidance range Bar chart in billions of dollars on an axis from 0 to 30. GUIDANCE for the June quarter 2026 was 20.0 to 24.0 billion dollars, a grey hatched band. ACTUAL June quarter 2026 operating income was 27.5 billion dollars, a solid grey bar. GUIDANCE for the September quarter 2026 is 22.5 to 26.5 billion dollars, a blue hatched band with a dashed outline. $0B $10B $20B $30B GUIDANCE $20.0B–$24.0B Q2 2026 guidance ACTUAL $27.5B Q2 2026 actual GUIDANCE $22.5B–$26.5B Q3 2026 guidance
Q2 GUIDANCE rangeQ2 ACTUALQ3 GUIDANCE range
08

Ten names, scored

Ten names, in calendar order, not ranked. Last quarter against own outlook, then the latest one. Only NOW, INTC and COIN printed a range for this week's quarter in a release or filing.

Verdicts CALCULATED. NO NUMERIC OUTLOOK means no figure for the scored metric and quarter in a release or filing. Above its own outlook is no beat against analyst estimates. Growth is year over year.

09

Macro desk

The Fed's last words and each release's previous reading.

The sentences to watch

Inflation
The September 16 statement said Inflation remains elevated.
Uncertainty
It also said uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments.
Activity
It said Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace.

The data, its previous reading and the basis

When (ET)ReleasePrevious reading and basisSource
Tue 08:30Advance Report on Durable Goods, SeptemberAugust new orders $338.5B, down 0.1% on the month, as revised October 2 ACTUAL. Seasonally adjusted, not adjusted for prices.Census
Tue 10:00New Residential Sales, SeptemberAugust 684,000 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 6.4% (±19.5%) on July ACTUAL. The 90% interval includes zero, so the change is not statistically significant.Census
Tue 10:00Consumer Confidence Index, OctoberSeptember 81.9 (1985=100) as first published, down 6.7 points ACTUAL.Conference Board
Wed 08:30Advance Economic Indicators Report, SeptemberAugust goods deficit $132.1B in the October 6 trade report, against $132.6B in the advance report ACTUAL. Both on a Census basis, before BEA's adjustments.Census, FT-900
Thu 08:30GDP, Q3 advance estimateQ2 real GDP 2.2%, third estimate, revised up 0.7 percentage point from the second and including the 2026 annual update ACTUAL. Annual rate of quarter-over-quarter change.BEA
Thu 08:30Personal Income and Outlays, SeptemberAugust PCE prices +3.4% y/y, core +3.0%, and +0.3% and +0.2% m/m. Income +0.2% m/m ACTUAL.BEA
Thu 08:30Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims194,000 in the week ending October 17, seasonally adjusted advance figure, after a revised 200,000 ACTUAL.DOL
Fri 08:30Employment Cost Index, Q3Q2 +0.9% over three months, seasonally adjusted ACTUAL. The 12-month 3.4% ACTUAL is not seasonally adjusted, a different basis.BLS
Mon, Tue, Thu 13:00Treasury 2-, 5- and 7-year note auctionsOffering amounts $69B, $70B and $44B, announced October 22 ACTUAL.TreasuryDirect

The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.96% on October 22, the latest value in FRED, down from 5.09% on October 16 ACTUAL (FRED, daily, percent). No CPI or jobs report this week.

10

Threads

Three questions that need more than one report to answer.

Thread 1

Equipment and chip outlooks

Does each company give a next-quarter range, and does its midpoint sit above or below the quarter just reported?

Which reportsAny December-quarter outlook from KLA can sit beside Lam Research's $8.60B ± $400M GUIDANCE, and any fourth-quarter outlook from NXP or Intel beside Texas Instruments' $5.80B–$6.30B GUIDANCE.

What may fit togetherLam's December midpoint sits $0.38B above its September revenue, and TI's fourth-quarter midpoint of $6.05B is about level with its third quarter CALCULATED. TI and NXP both name automotive and data center markets in their own releases.

Why results can differEquipment and chip makers sell at different stages, Intel also reports a foundry segment, and a sequential midpoint carries each company's own seasonal pattern. This report claims no customer link among these companies.

GridTue PM NXPI · Wed PM KLAC · Thu PM INTC
Thread 2

Sentiment, income and sales

Do the surveys, the income data and the payment and restaurant reports measure the same spending?

Which reportsThe Conference Board and University of Michigan surveys record how households say they feel, while BEA counts September income in current dollars. Visa, Mastercard and PayPal cover July to September, when American Express grew billed business, the spending on its cards, 8% ACTUAL. The food and restaurant companies report only their own sales.

What may fit togetherPayment volumes for the same quarter can be read side by side. Low survey readings and growing card spending, as at American Express, can both be accurate.

Why results can differEach payment company defines volume its own way, current-dollar figures include price changes, and PayPal guides EPS, a profit measure. The two surveys are separate indexes, so only their direction compares.

GridTue KO, PYPL, V · Wed PM CMG · Thu MA, SBUX, MDLZ
Thread 3

Named items

When a profit line or a full-year number moves, is it the business or a named item?

Which reportsAlphabet's Q2 diluted EPS of $9.11 included $6.26 from gains on equity securities, and Intel's Q2 GAAP loss of $2.16 per share included a loss of $2.45 per share from revaluing shares held in escrow, to be released to the U.S. Department of Commerce ACTUAL. AbbVie lowered its adjusted EPS ranges by $0.11 on October 5 for $216M of acquired IPR&D and milestones expense GUIDANCE, and Chevron expects a one-time after-tax loss of about $3B–$4B on a midstream divestment, booked at a closing expected by year-end 2026 and so not in Friday's results GUIDANCE.

What may fit togetherAt Alphabet and Intel, as at Amazon and Microsoft last quarter, the item sits below operating income, so operating income is the closer reading of the business. AbbVie's IPR&D expense sits inside operating earnings, its term for operating income, and adjusted EPS, so there the lowered range from October 5 is the comparison.

Why results can differAdjusted lines follow each company's own rules, and year-ago quarters carry their own items, as the Amazon briefing shows.

GridWed PM GOOGL · Thu PM INTC · Fri AM ABBV, CVX
11

Last week, scored

October 19–23, each result against the company's own outlook or the previous reading.

Scorecard, roundup and S&P 500 chartACTUAL vs own GUIDANCE · verdicts CALCULATEDClick to open ▾Close ▴

What carries into this week

  • Meta's 2026 capex range of $135B–$145B includes finance lease payments GUIDANCE, so it does not compare directly with Microsoft's figure, which now leaves out more leases.
  • GE Aerospace, RTX, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin all raised their 2026 guidance GUIDANCE. The raises came from one industry and set no pattern for other sectors.
  • Netflix said its margin was ahead of its own forecast primarily due to the timing of expenses, and TI's EPS included a 1-cent reduction not in its original guidance ACTUAL. Read such reasons before an ABOVE or BELOW.

Scorecard

Company or releaseMetricOwn outlook or previous readingActualVerdict
Companies
NetflixQ3 operating margin33.2% forecast in the Q2 letter GUIDANCE34.6% ACTUALABOVE+1.4 pts above
Texas InstrumentsQ3 revenue$5.65B–$6.15B GUIDANCE$6.055B ACTUALINSIDE$95M below the top
Texas InstrumentsQ3 GAAP EPS$2.23–$2.57 GUIDANCE$2.62 ACTUALABOVE$0.05 above the top
Data, compared with the previous reading, not a forecast
Housing starts, SeptemberChange on the month1,288,000 revised August ACTUAL1,221,000 SAAR, −5.2% (±11.8%) ACTUALNOT SIGNIFICANT90% interval includes zero
Initial jobless claimsWeek ending Oct 17, seasonally adjusted200,000 prior week, revised ACTUAL194,000 ACTUALBELOW6,000 below
UMich consumer sentimentOctober final48.1 September final ACTUAL48.0 ACTUALBELOW0.1 index point below

Verdicts CALCULATED. For data, a change whose 90% interval includes zero is NOT SIGNIFICANT.

Roundup

Big Tech and Netflix

Netflix · Oct 20Q4 margin guided below Q3 but above the prior-year quarter. ACTUAL GUIDANCE
Meta Platforms · Oct 21Revenue up 26%, operating income down 37% with a $9.9B legal charge. ACTUAL
Lam Research · Oct 21September revenue a “record” in Lam's words, December guided higher. ACTUAL GUIDANCE

Payments

American Express · Oct 23Revenue up 9%, EPS outlook raised. ACTUAL GUIDANCE

Sources are company 8-K exhibits on SEC EDGAR for Netflix (Q3 forecast from the Q2 letter), Meta, TI, Lam, GE Aerospace, RTX, Northrop, Lockheed, American Express. Macro sources are Census, DOL, UMich, FRED.

S&P 500, last week

S&P 500 daily close, October 16 to 23, 2026

Index points. Y-axis truncated to 7,600–7,780 to show a move of 0.47%.
S&P 500 daily closes, October 16 to October 23, 2026 Line chart of S&P 500 closing levels: Friday Oct 16 7,659.44; Monday Oct 19 7,690.73; Tuesday Oct 20 7,712.57; Wednesday Oct 21 7,757.17 (all ACTUAL, FRED); Thursday Oct 22 7,663.43 and Friday Oct 23 7,623.68 (exchange closes, not yet in FRED). A dashed line marks the Oct 16 close. The y-axis is truncated and runs from 7,600 to 7,780. 7,600 7,650 7,700 7,750 7,659 7,691 7,713 7,757 7,663* 7,624* Fri 10/16 Mon 10/19 Tue 10/20 Wed 10/21 Thu 10/22 Fri 10/23
FRED ACTUALhollow (*) = exchange close, not yet in FREDOct 16 close 7,659.44
+1.28% through Wednesday, −1.21% Thursday, −0.52% Friday, −0.47% on the week CALCULATED.
Source: FRED, S&P 500 (SP500) for October 16–21. The October 22 and 23 closes (*) were not checked against a primary document.
12

Glossary

Thirteen terms · fold or unfold
Basis point (bp)
One hundredth of a percentage point, so 25 bp is 0.25 percentage point.
FOMC
The Federal Reserve committee that sets the target range for the federal funds rate.
Advance estimate
The BEA's first estimate of quarterly GDP, revised twice later.
Core PCE
The price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy.
ECI
The BLS quarterly measure of wage, salary and benefit costs.
GAAP and non-GAAP
GAAP is the U.S. accounting standard. A non-GAAP figure is adjusted by the company's own rules, leaving out items GAAP includes.
EPS
Earnings per share, net income divided by the number of shares.
Operating income
Revenue minus operating costs, before interest, investment gains or losses and taxes.
Sequential and year over year (y/y)
Sequential compares a period with the one before (m/m for months), year over year with the same period a year earlier. A calendar effect in the same quarter each year moves only the sequential comparison. One that changes quarter moves both, as in our reading Prime Day does at Amazon this year.
Constant currency
Growth recalculated as if exchange rates had not changed.
SAAR
Seasonally adjusted annual rate, a monthly figure adjusted for the season and scaled to a full year.
Capex
Capital expenditures, spending on long-lived assets such as datacenters and equipment.
IPR&D
In-process research and development, research projects a company acquires before they are approved or launched.
13

Method and sources

What this report leaves out and why

This report leaves out analyst estimates, consensus figures, implied moves, rate probabilities, price targets and trading calls, because none can be checked against a primary source. Every figure comes from a company, an agency, a survey publisher or an exchange close, or is calculated from those and marked.

ACTUALreported figure · GUIDANCEoutlook printed by the company · MGMT EXPECTATIONstated only on a call · CALCULATEDderived by TVT from reported figures

Source check status, October 24, 2026

Checked against the primary document are the macro figures (BLS from a trimmed copy of its release page), the Microsoft and Amazon figures, the NXP, Fortinet, Intel, Coinbase and KLA ranges, last week's Netflix, TI, Lam, Meta and American Express figures, the named items at Alphabet, Intel, AbbVie and Chevron, and whether each fact-sheet company published an outlook. Not checked are the outlook remarks on the Alphabet, Visa, Mastercard and Boeing calls, Chevron's separate guidance document (not retrievable) and the S&P 500 closes of October 22 and 23. Carried over from the earlier edition without a new check are company dates and times, the GE Aerospace, RTX, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin guidance raises and the other fact-sheet lines, which list their own gaps. The October 29 claims date follows the Labor Department's Thursday schedule and is not in its release. For the ten names, each outlook, actual and note was checked against the release or filing linked in its row, the SoFi, ServiceNow and Rivian dates against their announcements, and the UPS and Coca-Cola fact sheets were corrected where the filings print prior-year revenue. Not checked are the earnings calls of all ten. So it stays open where Rivian first gave its Q2 delivery range of 9,000 to 11,000, which Q3 outlook its October 2 release refers to, and what SoFi said about guidance on its Q2 call, to which the release points.

Forward-looking figures are as stated in the latest release, filing or call.
This content is for educational purposes only and reflects TheValueTrader's personal perspective and interpretation of publicly available information. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investing involves risk, and you are responsible for your own decisions. Always do your own research.
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